Despite signs of economic revival, much of the world’s finance executives fear there will be a slow and weak recovery; many are uncertain about the economy’s direction and anticipate there will be major changes in borrowing sources and the relative growth and stability of countries capital markets notes a new RBC Capital Markets survey of 736 senior finance executives conducted by the Economist Intelligence Unit.
The executives are from commercial and investment banks, hedge funds, private equity firms and non financial companies which raise money in the capital markets.
6% surveyed they expect there will be a sharp economic rebound in the next six months, with growth returning to its previous levels over the next two years. 58% expect gradual economic recovery over the next year, with global growth resuming at a below trend rate over the following year.
24% does not expect a meaningful recovery for at least 1 year, followed by negligible growth at best. 10% expect there will be a prolonged period of global economic weakness which will last for two years.
As you can see, the majority of finance executives believe that full recovery will be a slow and difficult process.
30% of executives think that the U.S. dollar will lose its reserve currency status, in the next five years.
Executives also believe that the dollar’s successor may come from far away; 47% of banks, hedge funds and other capital markets have the utmost confidence in the growth and stability of China’s Capital markets over the next two years.
Although there is not many financial executives predicting a sharp economic rebound, we can at least look at the 58% who expect a gradual economic recovery. It might not happen as quickly as we want, but its better to take things slow and have them done right , than have a half way job done.